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INVESTMENT STRATEGY BRIEF

A Smooth Flight Perhaps… Or Turbulence Ahead?

It’s been smooth sailing for the U.S. economy and markets, but in our October Investment Strategy Brief we discuss how uncertainties around the upcoming election, U.S. fiscal trajectory, and Middle East conflicts may create some turbulence ahead. 

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Quarterly Market Perspectives

Q4 2024 

In this edition of our Quarterly Market Perspective's we examine the U.S. economy’s strength in the second and third quarters, and our expectations going forward. 

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Client Webinar: 2024 U.S. Elections

Join Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner and Stifel Chief Investment Officer Michael O’Keeffe, CFA on Tuesday, October 29, at 2:00pm ET.  They will discuss the potential outcomes and investment implications of the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections.

DETAILS

2024 U.S. Elections Are Close, What Does That Mean for Investors?

Market Sight|Lines

With the 2024 U.S. elections just over a week away, investors are eager to know the impact on markets, portfolios and investment opportunities. We preview the election and client webinar that Brian Gardner, Stifel’s Chief Washington Policy Strategist, and I will be hosting.

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More Insights

Weekly Market Perspectives

October 21, 2024

The soft landing scenario gained support from last week’s strong retail sales and better-than-expected company earnings, propelling the S&P 500 to its sixth consecutive week of gains.

Article

Allocation Insights

Q4 | 2024

While macroeconomic risks remain, we have growing confidence that U.S. economic growth will continue, extending the current business cycle. As the Fed progresses with its rate cuts, we expect market leadership to continue to broaden beyond big tech. We expect increased market volatility into and through the November U.S. elections, and we’re mindful of building global risks.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

2: The increase in number of hours between 2003 and 2022 that people between the ages of 15 and 34 spent at home.

Newsletter

The U.S. Debt Trajectory: The Need for a Fiscal Transition

Market Sight|Lines

Given increased levels of debt and a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, we've been raising the alarm about a pending Fiscal Transition across our economy. Learn about the potential risks in this Sight|Lines.

Article

Potomac Perspective

October 22, 2024

Among the most common questions we field from clients are “when will we know the outcome of the presidential election” and “will there be chaos if the results are contested.” The second question suggests not only concerns about the civic response to a contested outcome, but also concern about the financial market’s response.

Article

Economic Insight LIVE webinar Replay

Q3 2024 

Economic Insight LIVE, with Lindsey Piegza, where Dr. Piegza offers her quarterly economic outlook and views on the current environment.

Video

An Update – From Vision to Value: Our Long-Term Investment Themes

Market Sight|Lines

Recently, we've covered short-term topics, but it's crucial for investors to keep an eye on the long-term changes in our world. Let’s dive into our long-term investment themes, highlighting value-creation opportunities that will shape the way we live, interact, and consume goods and services.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

84%: The increase in the number of “Northerners” going to Southern public colleges over the past two decades. Between 2018 and 2022, it rose 30%.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

October 9, 2024

With Election Day less than a month away, the presidential race seems too close to call. In the latest episode of Potomac Perspective, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner and co-host Neil Shapiro discuss what to watch in the campaign’s homestretch – and look at how political party realignment could help reshape the electoral college map.

Podcast

Stronger-than-Expected Rise in September Payrolls Muddies Outlook for November Policy Action

October 7, 2024
Economic Insight

A significantly stronger-than-expected 254,000 gain in September nonfarm payrolls not only calls into question the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s latest outsized rate cut decision in September, but also the size of additional rate cuts needed going forward.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

40%: The percentage of Gen Z (ages 18-27) workers who think that they’re behind where they should be on their retirement savings.

Newsletter

After the Election: Challenges and Opportunities

Market Sight|Lines

With the election coming up, investors are on edge, thanks to the worry about volatility and the media's hype about shifts in political power. Let's look past the election to some areas of long-term focus for the next administration and investors.

Article

September in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

Breaking the pattern of the last four years, this September saw markets rally, fueled by cooling inflation and the start of the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle. Unemployment fell to 4.2%, and retail sales rose at a faster-than-expected pace, suggesting consumer spending will remain a strong contributor to third quarter economic growth.

Article

From Vision to Value: Our Long-Term Investment Themes

Anticipating the megatrends influencing the economy and markets is a cornerstone for successful investing. That’s why our long-term investment themes consider how megatrends such as artificial intelligence, geopolitical tensions, and an aging population are presenting value-creation opportunities for long-term investors.

Article

Potomac Perspective

October 1, 2024

With five weeks until Election Day (and the day of the vice presidential debate), Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a small lead in the polls over Donald Trump, but we think Trump has a slight advantage in the Electoral College.

Article

Varying Fed Speak Indicates a Lack of Consensus Among Officials Amid Ongoing Uncertainty

September 30, 2024
Economic Insight

Appeasing market demands, the Fed opted to initiate the latest policy pivot with a sizable 50 bp cut – a move Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called a “strong start.” With the Fed signaling a willingness to do whatever it takes to support the labor market and, by extension, the economy, investors are questioning whether or not a soft landing is on the horizon and if further sizable cuts are on the way.

Article

Favorite 15

September 2024

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief discussing how recent economic and market data continues to reflect a resilient economy, Fed policy, and the run-up to the 2024 elections.

Article

Heightened Geopolitical Risk and a Slowing Global Economy Threaten the Soft Landing

Market Sight|Lines
September 27, 2024

Feeling good about the stock market? Not so fast. Artificial Intelligence and Federal Reserve rate cut optimism may be driving markets higher, but global risks could trigger a recession and a bear market.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

“Not sure what she bought, or if she was even able to use her Target app to save 5%. We did let her finish her Frappuccino. We’re not mean.”

-Bedford, Ohio police in a Facebook post after locating an 8-year-old girl who drove her mom’s car for 20-25 minutes to Target.

Newsletter

Headwinds and Tailwinds

September Investment Strategy Brief

We discuss Headwinds and Tailwinds affecting the economy and the markets going forward, even as we navigate changing Federal Reserve monetary policy and the run-up to the 2024 U.S. elections.

Article

The Federal Reserve Cuts Rates 50 Basis Points amid Still “Solid” Economy and “Elevated” Inflation

September 23, 2024
Economic Insight 

Meeting the market’s expectations for a more rapid reversal in policy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opted to cut rates 50 basis points out of the gate.

Video

Potomac Perspective

September 24, 2024

In the latest episode of Potomac Perspective, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner and co-host Neil Shapiro run through the latest menu of presidential proposals from the campaign trail. Plus, how Congress appears to have avoided a potential government shutdown – for now.

Podcast

The Federal Reserve Cuts Rates 50 Basis Points: “Threading the Needle” Will Be Tough

Market Sight|Lines

The Federal Reserve cut its funds rate by 0.5%, or 50 basis points, in line with expectations, after having hiked rates 5.25% from March 2022 to July 2023 to soften demand and tame high inflation. Importantly, we also learned more about Fed officials’ views of the future from its Summary of Economic Projections. We review the results of this Fed meeting and assess the risk of monetary policy error, in one direction or the other.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

18,125 miles: The total distance Lael Wilcox rode in setting her cycling record. It took her 108 days, 12 hours, and 12 minutes.

Newsletter

A Policy Pivot Leaves Unanswered Questions Regarding Size and Pace

September 16, 2024
Economic Insight

With inflation improving somewhat and indications the labor market is cooling, monetary policymakers have signaled the time is now upon us to begin a reduction in policy firming. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said as much at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, declaring, “The time has come for policy to adjust.”

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights


29%: The growth in solo dining reservations in the U.S. over the last two years, according to OpenTable.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

September 9, 2024

Tuesday’s presidential debate is shaping up as a “make or break” moment in the upcoming election. The race could be among the closest in history. With time running out in the campaign, the debate could be the most consequential event between now and November 5.

Article

Federal Reserve Officials Wait for Further Confidence as Pivot Point Nears

August 19, 2024
Economic Insight

The July Federal Open Market Committee statement offered no guarantee of a September rate cut, falling well shy of market expectations.

Article

Will Rate Cuts Be Enough to Sustain the Bull Market, or Is a Bear Market Inevitable?

Market Sight|Lines

September 13, 2024

We consider if Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts likely starting next week will be enough to prevent a recession and sustain the bull market, or whether a recession or a bear market is on the near-term horizon. 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

4,400: The number of athletes competing in the Paris 2024 Paralympic Games that started last week.

Newsletter

The Time Has Come: Chair Powell Concedes to Policy Pivot

September 9, 2024
Economic Insight

According to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the time for rate cuts is upon us. While devoid of specifics in terms of the expected timing and speed of future policy adjustments, he gave a clear nod to the market when speaking at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on August 23, that amid cooling conditions it was now appropriate to adjust policy off of a 23-year high.

Article

Reprise: Get Ready for Market Volatility, In One Direction or the Other

Market Sight|Lines
September 6, 2024

We revisit the topics of increasing market volatility and the prospect of a breakout market, in one direction or the other.

Article

August in Review

The S&P 500 rose 2.43%, but experienced increased volatility at the start of the month, logging its worst and best sessions since 2022. The increased volatility was triggered by a weak jobs report, raising concerns about a faster than-expected economic slowdown. 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$6,463 to $15,559: The cost of a one-week trip to Disney for a family of four, not including flights or souvenirs, according to NerdWallet.

Newsletter

Allocation Insights

Q3 2024

U.S. economic indicators signal ongoing expansion, yet a rise in the unemployment rate coupled
with a more discerning consumer, has raised worries that the economy may be slowing faster than
anticipated and that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be behind on lowering rates.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

2+ hours: The time a typical American’s laundry load sits unattended in the washer, according to data from GE Appliances.

Newsletter

A Positive Earnings Season

Market Sight|Lines
August 16,2024

We review the second quarter “earnings season,” unpacking the quarter’s results so far, as well as implications for the future, including AI and the potential for a consumer slowdown.

Article

Potomac Perspective

August 19, 2024

The successful outcome of much of Donald Trump’s or Kamala Harris’s agendas will rest with Congress. In this note, we therefore look at where the race to control Congress stands. The Senate map favors Republicans, while the House looks like a toss-up.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

0.005 seconds: American sprinter Noah Lyles’s margin of victory in the men’s 100-meter race, winning a gold medal. That time is faster than a blink of an eye.

Newsletter

Embracing Change: Market Rotations and U.S. Elections

July 2024 Investment Strategy Brief

We discuss Embracing Change happening in the second half, like an anticipated economic slowdown after a strong first half, the upcoming U.S. elections, and the market rotation that began in July.

Article

Client Webinar Replay | 2024 U.S. Elections

August 1, 2016

Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner and Chief Investment Officer Michael O’Keeffe discussed the potential outcomes and investment implications of the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections. 

Video

The Health of the Labor Market: Stabilization Versus Weakness

August 12, 2024

The latest July employment report fell notably below expectations, buoying calls for the Federal Reserve to take action in order to stem further potential weakness. In fact, amid rising fears of a more precipitous downturn in the labor market, some have called for a larger 50-basis-point cut at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next month, or even an emergency reduction before then. But while hiring conditions have clearly cooled from peak levels, a less tight labor market is merely the desired effect of policy firming.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$9.29: The average cost of a Big Mac meal in the U.S., up 27% since 2019.

Newsletter

Softer Economic Data Roils Markets: Setting up For a Breakout Market

Market Sight|Lines

August 9, 2024
Market experts have been focused on a softening job market, weaker manufacturing, and a rate hike in Japan as drivers of recent market moves. We review these catalysts for the recent market volatility and explore the potential for breakout markets going forward, in one direction or the other.

Article

Favorite 15

July 2024

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief discussing the election timeline and investment considerations that come along with it. We also mention the coming shift in earnings growth and a revised version of equity return composition.

Article

Potomac Perspective

August 7, 2024

According to numerous press reports, Kamala Harris has picked Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to be her running mate. The pick could help Harris compete in rural areas where Walz has a record of attracting votes.

Article

Will They or Won’t They? July Federal Open Market Committee Statement Falls Short of Committing to September Rate Cut

August 5, 2024

As expected, last week the Fed opted to keep rates unchanged — currently in a range of 5.25%-5.50% — for the eighth consecutive meeting. However, the Committee’s forward-looking guidance did fall shy of expectations; while policy makers kept the prospect of a September rate cut alive, they stopped short of committing to it. Reiterating a focus on the data, they were clear that further confidence is needed.

Article

The U.S. Elections Take Shape: Investment Implications

Market Sight|Lines
August 2, 2024

We review the investment implications of the various outcomes for the U.S. elections. 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

10,000+: The number of people that have carried the Olympic torch from Greece to France to celebrate the arrival of the 2024 Games in Paris.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

July 30, 2024

A week into the Harris campaign, we look at what, if anything, has changed. Spoiler alert: A lot, but not much. We begin this note with a brief comparison of the Trump and Harris agendas regarding tax, health care, and trade. We expect Vice President Harris will run on the Biden platform, but we include proposals from Ms. Harris’s 2020 campaign.

Article

Jumping Ship: A Once Again Lonely Boat of Higher For Longer

July 29, 2024

In the aftermath of a cooler-than-expected June Consumer Price Index report and some cooler labor data in the second quarter, market expectations for a near-term Fed rate reduction surged. In fact, even some of the most steadfast members of the “higher for longer” camp have wavered as the pace of disinflation has improved – albeit modestly.

Article

The U.S. Elections Take Shape: Platform and Policy Implications

Market Sight|Lines
July 26, 2024

We review the main platforms of each candidate as the U.S. elections take shape. 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

8.5 million: The amount of Windows devices that were affected from CrowdStrike’s botched software update.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

July 23, 2024

On Sunday, President Joe Biden did what many had expected and dropped his reelection bid. Vice President Kamala Harris followed that by announcing that she will run for the Democratic nomination. We think there is a good chance that she could effectively wrap up this process within the next 48 hours. The nomination is Harris’s to lose.

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Potomac Perspective

July 19, 2024

We have reached critical mass. Based on developments of the past few days, we now think it is more likely than not that President Joe Biden will drop out of the presidential race. Vice President Kamala Harris is his most likely successor as the Democratic Party’s nominee.

Email

The Speed of Market Rotation: Staying the Course

Market Sight|Lines 
July 19, 2024

We further discuss the potential for a stock market rotation and use the market shifts of the last week to illustrate how quickly a meaningful rotation can occur.

Article

Markets Are Poised for Rotation: What To Do, and Not To Do

July 11, 2024

We discuss the potential for both a bond market and stock market rotation, and why some actions
may be warranted while other actions may not.

Article

The New Consumer: Findings from our 2024 Summer Intern Survey

In the second year of our intern survey, over 150 of Stifel’s summer interns offered insight into their preferences, spending habits, and perceptions of the world.

Find out what our interns think about artificial intelligence, investing, big ticket purchases, climate change, and more.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Elon Musk dodged a $500 million lawsuit claiming he stiffed Twitter employees on severance, proving even legal battles can be rocket science.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

July 16, 2024

The selection of Senator J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) to be Donald Trump’s running mate is yet another sign that this isn’t your father’s Republican Party. Senator Vance’s nomination probably says more about the long-term direction of the GOP than it does about this election, and it’s a move away from capital and towards labor.

Article

Economic Insight LIVE webinar Replay

Q2 2024 

Economic Insight LIVE, with Lindsey Piegza, where Dr. Piegza offers her quarterly economic outlook and views on the current environment.

Video

Potomac Perspective

July 15, 2024

The shooting of Donald Trump will likely increase his chances of winning the fall election. The scale of political boost he will receive, however, remains uncertain. These events will also freeze Democratic efforts to replace President Biden as their party’s nominee. Near term, these factors point to a risk-on trade.

Article

Favorite 15

June 2024

A selection of slides from our most recent Investment Strategy Brief discussing what's in focus for the second half of 2024, including elections, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Time to make up? Boeing has agreed to repurchase key supplier Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. in an all-stock deal worth $4.7 billion, reversing a split dating back almost two decades. That’s the Spirit!

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

July 8, 2024

This could be make or break week for Joe Biden’s campaign.  If he can survive it without significant defections from key Democrats, we think that it is likely he will stay in the presidential race.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Amazon Prime Day will run July 16-17, and pink Stanley Quenchers will be sent all across the country.

Newsletter

Focus for the Second Half

June Investment Strategy Brief 

We discuss what’s in focus for the second half of 2024, including elections, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, a potential economic slowdown, and what these forces might mean for market performance going forward.

Video

Quarterly Market Perspectives

Q3 2024

We review the prior quarter's capital market returns and economic developments in this context of our outlook and asset allocation themes. 

Article

June in Review

The S&P 500 rose 3.59% in June, recording several record highs driven by better-than-expected inflation readings, lower Treasury rates, and strong economic data. The consumer price index and producer price index reports were better than expected and added to the disinflation narrative.

Article

Potomac Perspective

July 2, 2024

Recently, the U.S. Supreme Court issued several decisions that could impact tax policy and economic regulation. We take a quick look at four important cases and discuss what these rulings could mean for future policy.

Email

Gauging Appropriate Policy Amid Potential Upside Risks to Inflation and a Higher Neutral Rate

July 1, 2024


While arguably rebalancing at a gradual pace in the aftermath of the fastest backup in rates in four decades, the expected slowdown in demand and overall impact on the U.S. labor market remains muted. Momentum is slowing in many key categories of economic activity, however, the readjustment remains less than anticipated.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

23: The number of sets of twins who graduated from a single Massachusetts middle school this month. They made up almost 10% of the graduating class.

Newsletter

INVESTORʼS HANDBOOK FOR ELECTION YEARS

In each election year, the prevailing narrative seems to suggest that our country stands at a crossroads with the potential for significant consequences. This often creates uncertainty for investors and leads to market volatility. The temptation to react impulsively to political changes can be strong, but amid this uncertainty, a disciplined and long-term approach to investing becomes paramount. 

Brochure

Potomac Perspective

June 28th, 2024

President Joe Biden continued the trend of incumbent Presidents stumbling in their first debate when running for reelection. Mr. Biden’s problem is that his performance reinforced voters’ worries about his age and ability to serve another term.

Article

One Headwind to AI Optimism: The Looming U.S. Fiscal Transition

June 28, 2024

We review the concept of Fiscal Transition and discuss the implications of the latest Congressional Budget Office budget update. 

Article

State of the Economy: Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators

June 24, 2024

A cooler-than-expected May inflation report following minimal improvement in April has reinforced the Fed’s position on the sidelines, now for the seventh consecutive meeting, with the Committee noting “modest” progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$19.9 trillion: The amount of wealth forecasted to be passed on by 2033 by about 155,000 individuals with a net worth of $30 million or more, according to London-based data firm Altrata.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

June 24, 2024

In this note, we look at several sectors that could be impacted by the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. Populism continues to gain strength in both political parties, so a greater emphasis on industrial policy and central planning are the likely results no matter which candidate wins.

Email

Key Takeaways from the June Federal Open Market Committee Meeting: A Message of Patience for “Eventual” Easing

June 17, 2024

As expected, the Fed opted to keep rates unchanged in a range of 5.25% to 5.50% for the seventh consecutive meeting since September 2023. But while the policy announcement itself was uneventful, there were several key takeaways for investors desperately trying to gauge the outlook and expected timeline for any adjustment in policy.

Article

The 2024 Global Election Supercycle: Implications for the U.S. Elections

June 21, 2024

We share a brief update on some elections around the world, and then discuss how these results may affect our internal relations, as well as potential implications for our U.S. elections later this year.

Article

The Federal Reserve Sees Improving Inflation, Yet Signals Higher Rates Through 2024

June 14, 2024

We unpack the results of the Fed’s June 2024 meeting and the recently released Summary of Economic Projections.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

32%: The increase in morning commutes of 75 miles or more between a four-month period in 2023-24 and 2019-20 as many workers are now hybrid.

Newsletter

Favorite 15

May 2024

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief discussing how recent economic and market data continues to reflect a resilient economy and corporate profits. We discuss implications of market interest rates straying higher for longer.

Article

Tight Labor Market Conditions Overshadow Cooler Start to the Year

June 11, 2024

The U.S. economy slowed significantly across the first three months of 2024. While nominally still positive, GDP shed significant momentum from an earlier outsized increase of 4.1% in the second half of last year to just 1.3% in Q1.

Article

May in Review

The S&P 500 rose 4.96% in May, driven by lower Treasury rates, a still strong economy, and company earnings growth surprising to the upside. With 98% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported results, earnings are estimated to have grown 5.9% year over year, above the 3.4% estimate at the start of the quarter.

Article

The U.S. Dollar as the World’s Reserve Currency: Secure in the Near Term, But…

May 31, 2024

We discuss the U.S. dollar’s (USD) position as the world’s reserve currency and the risks, both near and longer term, to the USD’s reserve currency status.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Golden Goose, the luxury shoe brand known for selling sneakers with a lot of character, is reportedly making plans for an IPO in Milan at a €3.3 billion valuation.

Newsletter

Central Bank Policy Divergence

June 4, 2024

The latest bout of commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) members reiterated not just the Fed’s broader message of patience, but offered a clearer indication of how many more months of improved data are needed to justify a rate reduction.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

706: The number of people named Kyle that gathered recently in a city in Texas named Kyle.

Article

Potomac Perspective

May 31, 2024

A New York jury found former Donald Trump guilty of falsifying business records. We offer no opinion on the trial, the verdict, or the prospects regarding an inevitable appeal. Politically, we do not think the verdict changes the 2024 presidential race, nor do we believe that it will have a material impact on financial markets over the near term.

Article

Higher for Longer

May 2024

Recent economic and market data continue to reflect a resilient economy and corporate profits. We discuss the economic and market implications of market interest rates staying higher for longer.

Video

Inflation, the Federal Reserve, and Higher for Longer Trigger Weak April Market Performance

May 3, 2024

We review inflation, economic results, the Fed’s policy update, and how those forces influenced April market performance.

Article

Putting Behavioral Finance in the Palm of Your Hand: The Stifel Financial ID

May 10, 2024

We review the Stifel Financial ID, a behavioral finance model designed to help clients understand themselves and work more effectively with their Stifel Financial Advisor. 

Article

Potomac Perspective

May 31, 2024

A New York jury found former Donald Trump guilty of falsifying business records. We offer no opinion on the trial, the verdict, or the prospects regarding an inevitable appeal. Politically, we do not think the verdict changes the 2024 presidential race, nor do we believe that it will have a material impact on financial markets over the near term

Article

Learnings From the Stifel Blueprint Conference

May 24, 2024

Every year or so, Stifel wealth colleagues, Stifel leadership, and other industry professionals gather for our Blueprint conference. The agenda includes time for one-on-one discussions, small group engagement, larger breakout sessions, and a few “main stage” sessions where all participants gather to learn. We share some of our learnings from the 2024 Stifel Blueprint conference.

Article

The Federal Reserve Continues to Recommend Patience amid Uncertain Inflationary Pressures

May 21, 2024

Opting to keep rates on hold for the sixth consecutive meeting earlier this month, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a message of continued patience for policy easing – eventually – as the Committee awaits further evidence inflation is on a sustained downward trajectory toward 2%.

Article

Allocation Insights

Q2 2024

U.S. equity markets continue to ride a wave of optimism anchored on the strength of the U.S. economy and the potential of artificial intelligence. As we look forward to the rest of 2024, we challenge ourselves to think differently. Learn how we are positioning portfolios.

Article

Potomac Perspective

May 21, 2024 

After the close on Monday, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chairman Martin Gruenberg announced his willingness to step aside from his position once a successor is confirmed.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

872: The number of trading sessions through last Wednesday for the Dow to reach its latest 10,000-point milestone of 40,000.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

May 20, 2024

The House is scheduled to vote this week on two cryptocurrency bills, including one regarding central bank digital currencies. We do not expect either piece of legislation is likely to become law, but the votes on each bill are still important.

Email

Potomac Perspective

May 16th, 2024

A House hearing with the banking regulators did not provide any groundbreaking news on the Basel III Endgame proposal. It did, however, reinforce our view that the proposal could be significantly altered or even scrapped.

Article

Special Edition Economic Insights A Closer Look: Artificial Intelligence: Helpful or Harmful to Workers and Businesses?

May 13, 2024

While the earliest notable work in the field of AI dates back to the 1930s, it is only in the past few years that AI has captured public attention. However, what is it really? We rely on various technologies every day, including computers and smartphones, so what makes AI different or revolutionary?

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

63%: The percentage of U.S. workers that say they are satisfied with their job, the highest level recorded since the survey began in 1987, according to the Conference Board.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

May 10, 2024

An annual report on the financial condition of Social Security and Medicare forecasts the programs’ trust funds will cease to be fully funded by 2033 and 2036, respectively. Although that does not seem like much time to a lot of people, it is light years away for Congress. We don’t expect serious action to remedy the situation until at least after the 2028 elections.

Article

Weaker-Than-Expected Job Gains in April Boost Expectations for Rate Cuts

May 3, 2024

April nonfarm payrolls rose by 175,000, falling short of the 240,000 gain expected. While still broadly indicating tight conditions, the labor market appears to be cooling somewhat, resulting in some upward movement in the unemployment rate and more muted pressure on wages.

Video

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Not the interns! Tesla rescinded offers to interns three weeks before they were supposed to start.

Newsletter

April in Review

May 1, 2024

Markets fell in April as strong inflation dampened optimism of a Fed rate cut in June. Equities recovered some of their losses on stronger earnings, particularly from the “Magnificent Seven.”

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Chipotle customers are loyal! It has raised prices six times in the last three years, but the company reported this hasn’t dented demand.

Newsletter

A Scenario-Based Fed: What if Inflation Does Not Retreat as Expected?

April 29, 2024

The latest March Federal Open Market Committee forecast showed the majority of Fed officials anticipate three rate cuts by year-end. However, with inflation reversing its downward trajectory since the start of the year, Fed officials have dialed back expectations for rate cuts both in number and timing.

Article

Potomac Perspective

April 29, 2024

A Wall Street Journal article reports on possible actions that a future Trump administration might take vis-à-vis the Federal Reserve. We explain why we are skeptical that the courts would allow some of the proposals.

Email

The Protectionist Vote: How Are Elections Shaping Global Trade?

April 26, 2024

Earlier this year, we shared a view on how the 2024 election supercycle is bringing focus to an evolving world order, with the U.S. and China competing in what is increasingly a multipolar world. We continue the discussion, digging deeper into protectionism and the implications for global competition, China’s trade relations, and geopolitical hotspots.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Dubai saw streets transform into rivers following almost six inches of rain within 24 hours. The city typically receives 3.7 inches of rain in a given year, meaning almost two years’ worth of rain fell in just one day.

Article

Caution or Optimism: Can AI Counter a Potential Economic Slowdown?

April Investment Strategy Brief 

We delve into continued inflationary pressures, Fed policy, and the health of the U.S. consumer. We also examine the rally in commodity prices, the global election supercycle, and related investment implications.

Article

Favorite 15

April 2024

A selection of slides from our most recent Investment Strategy Brief discussing continued inflationary pressures, Fed policy and the health of the U.S. consumer.

Article

Special Edition Economic Insight: A Closer Look: Disruptions and Costs of Shipping

April 22, 2024

Supply chains are back in focus after Dali, a massive 95,000-ton container ship, collided with the 1.6-mile Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on March 26. The bridge crosses the only water route in and out of the harbor where the port is located. Additionally, the 3,600 commercial trucks that crossed the bridge each day prior to the collapse have also been disrupted.

Article

First Quarter Earnings Season: Insights Into Forward Guidance

April 19, 2024

Earnings season, where companies report results for the previous quarter, provides views into recent results and company management’s forward guidance, or view as we look forward. We share a brief update as the first quarter 2024 earnings season begins.

Article

Part-time, Adjustments, Immigration Boost Employment Headline

The March employment report surged past expectations, reinforcing the notion of a solid labor market and complicating the outlook for a Fed seemingly desperate to cut rates. After all, coupled with inflation reversing course for the past three months, a tight jobs market provides little justification for a reduction in policy firming. 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Costco is selling out of one-ounce 24-karat gold bars, leaving treasure hunters to settle for the next best thing: giant tubs of mixed nuts.

Article

AI Will Change Our Future; It’s Transforming Our World Today

April 12, 2024

The strong stock market results this year celebrate the potential for artificial intelligence (AI). And while big, tech-oriented companies are driving this performance, the opportunity goes well beyond tech-oriented stocks. We review the concept of AI and zoom in on some real-life uses that are already transforming our world today.

Article

Potomac Perspective

April 16, 2024 

The House could vote this week on a package of foreign aid bills. This vote represents the best chance of approving assistance for Israel and Ukraine. We think passage is likely, but not guaranteed. A House committee will mark up trade legislation this week which could eventually be included in year-end legislation.

Article

Potomac Perspective

April 10, 2024

Congress returns this week from its Easter break to a packed agenda. The first item Congress will work on this week, Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act reauthorization, will not have market implications.

Article

Robust Job Gains in March Complicate Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Pathway

April 8, 2024

March nonfarm payrolls rose by 303,000, reinforcing the notion of a tight labor market and solid economy, complicating the outlook for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. Coupled with unruly inflation pushing higher for the past two months, the likelihood of a change in policy, let alone of sizable downshift in rates, is becoming increasingly less likely.

Video

A Strong First Quarter 2024: We’re (Still) Watching for a Slowdown

April 5, 2024

The U.S. stock market posted strong first quarter results, riding a wave of optimism anchored in a still-strong economy and the potential of artificial intelligence. We review these strong first quarter results and the potential for cracks that may lead to a slowdown and a possible market pullback.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Last week, NATO – the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – celebrated 75 years of collective defense. Woohoo! So with this as a backdrop, we thought we’d dig into some geopolitical happenings and focus in on the Havana Syndrome. 

Newsletter

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

As the world marvels at the wonders of artificial intelligence, there’s a quirky tale lurking behind the scenes – AI’s demand for resources. Let’s briefly talk about the energy and water required to operate AI chat bots like ChatGPT.

Newsletter

Quarterly Market Perspectives

Q2 2024 

We review the prior quarter's capital market returns and economic developments in this context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

Article

Potomac Perspective

April 2, 2024

Congress is out of town this week, but the wheels are moving to construct a foreign aid package that could pass the House later this month. Some conservative Republicans oppose providing more aid for Ukraine, but the House Republican leadership is looking to attach provisions, such as blocking the Biden administration’s liquefied natural gas export moratorium (which would be popular among conservatives), in order to secure Republican votes and repel any effort to remove Speaker Mike Johnson from the Speaker’s chair.

Article

March in Review

The S&P 500 set a record high, ending March up 3.22% and bringing its year-to-date return to 10.55%. Earnings for the S&P 500 were up 4.1% year over year versus the 1.5% expected before earnings season began.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Dell implemented a return-to-office mandate with the stipulation that remote employees are no longer eligible for promotions.

Newsletter

No March Change in Monetary Policy Will the Federal Reserve Paint Itself into a Corner?

March 25, 2024

Recent inflation reports disappointed to the upside, meaning inflation still hovers above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) 2% target. Despite this, as the Fed concluded its March meeting, it left monetary policy unchanged but continued to signal its intent to cut rates later in the year. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we unpack the results of this Fed meeting and assess the risk that the Fed may not be able to cut rates later this year if inflation remains elevated.

Article

Key Takeaways from the March Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision

March 25, 2024

Without convincing proof of inflation retreating, the Committee, he said, is in no rush to initiate rate cuts, setting the stage for a prolonged position on the sidelines.

Article

Potomac Perspective

March 22, 2024 

As the week draws to a close, it appears Congress will avoid a partial government shutdown and, more importantly, sequestration cuts next month. While this is a positive for the market, prospects are diminishing that Congress will pass a tax bill that would have positive implications for sectors with high R&D spending. 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

4 minutes, 28 seconds: The longest duration that the Moon will completely cover the Sun during the solar eclipse on April 8.

Newsletter

Inflation Concerns Keep Federal Reserve on Sidelines for Much – Much – Longer

March 18, 2024 

Ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s March rate decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell headed to Washington, D.C. to testify before Congress on the current state of policy and expectations for rates going forward. Without convincing proof of inflation retreating, the Committee, he said, is in no rush to initiate rate cuts, setting the stage for a prolonged position on the sidelines.

Article

Watching for a Slowdown Despite the Optimism

Investment Strategy Brief 

There’s lots of optimism out there on both the economy and markets. In our March Investment Strategy Brief, we discuss how we’re watching for a slowdown, including a focus on the consumer, Federal Reserve policy, and other stresses related to higher interest rates, like with regional banks.

Article

The Ides of March: Watching for a Slowdown

March 15, 2024

Facing what seems to be unwavering economic optimism in the media and among some market watchers, we challenge ourselves to think differently. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we share some insights on the current environment as we watch for a slowdown.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

75%: The percentage of U.S. individuals that have confidence that retirement plan accounts can help individuals meet retirement goals.

Newsletter

Still Solid Job Gains in February Continue to Support Higher for Longer

March 11, 2024

With the February report exceeding expectations despite downward revisions to the January print, nominally, the pace of job creation remains still solid, pulling the three-month average up from 243,000 to 265,000.

Video

Potomac Perspective

March 11, 2024

President Joe Biden’s fiscal year 2025 budget will be released. Like most budgets, it will be DOA, but will still be important for the political message it sends as the 2024 campaign revs up.

Article

The 2024 Election Supercycle Brings Into Focus an Evolving World Order

March 8, 2024

Elections can drive change, and as we further assess the issues faced by voters globally, shifting global relationships come into focus. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we provide an update on the 2024 election supercycle and offer insights on the evolving world order fueled by economic competition.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$118,600: The average 401(k) balance at the end of 2023, up 14% from a year ago, according to Fidelity.

Newsletter

file:///C:/Users/dimartinis/AppData/Local/Temp/1/FedReserveBuilding_EconInsights_030424_389x276%20(3).jpg

“Patient, Careful, Methodical, and Deliberative:” Rate Cuts Delayed Amid Ongoing Inflation Concerns

March 4, 2024

Since reaching a presumed terminal level of 5.50% in July of last year, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has offered a consistent message of “patience” when it comes to the next stage of policy adjustment. While willing to include the notion of an eventual rate cut(s) into the conversation, Fed officials have been clear they will take a tempered approach towards a removal of accommodation.

Article

AI Boom: Temporary or Enduring?

March

As we start 2024, Artificial Intelligence (AI) remains top of mind for investors. Our February Investment Strategy Brief delves into the transformative impact of AI and related market dynamics. We also examine continued inflation concerns, monetary policy, and investment implications.

Article

February in Review

Momentum continued in February as the S&P 500 reached an all-time high, closing the month up 5.34%. By month-end, 97% of S&P 500 companies had reported fourth quarter earnings, with earnings growing 4.0% year over year.

Article

Equities Have a Strong Start in 2024, Warranting a Further Focus on Earnings

March 1, 2024

The stock market has started this year off strong, with the index ending February at 5,096.27 and a year-to-date return of 7.11%. Earnings, and a view of future earnings, are influencing this market behavior. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we provide an update on the fourth quarter earnings season.

Article

Favorite 15

A selection of slides from our most recent Investment Strategy Brief discussing the transformative impact of AI and related market dynamics.

Article

State of the Economy

February 2024

Leaving rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting in January, Federal Reserve officials continue to tout a message of patience, reminding market participants no further rate hikes do not necessarily translate into rate cuts, at least not yet.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

11.3%: The percentage of Americans consumers’ disposable income spent on food in 2022 according to the USDA, the highest since 1991.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

February 27, 2024

Congress returns to Washington this week to face yet another spending deadline. A partial government shutdown is possible, but we expect it would be short in duration and not market moving. The bigger issue is whether Congress will approve a spending bill that funds the government to fiscal year-end and averts sequestration cuts which could take effect in May.

Article

The Federal Reserve’s January Meeting Minutes Highlight Strengths and Vulnerabilities

February 23, 2024

We review and summarize some key takeaways from the Federal Reserve January meeting minutes, which highlight some strengths and potential vulnerabilities in the current environment.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Lyft made an oopsie that sent the stock flying up 60% for a short period of time. The company added an extra 0 to a profitability figure. The stock came back down faster than management could say “no take backs.”

Newsletter

Maintaining Composure During An Election Year

February 9, 2024

As happens every four years, the balance of power will be contested in 2024. We discuss how investors can prepare for the election by reflecting on history and the benefits of maintaining composure up to and through the election itself.

Article

Firming Consumer Inflation Renews Focus on the Federal Reserve and Earnings

February 16, 2024

We discuss how firming inflation has renewed the focus on Federal Reserve policy, company earnings, market valuations, and a breakdown of the “magnificent seven” versus the rest of the market.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

719: The number of trading sessions it took for the S&P 500 to gain 1,000 points to reach 5,000, an all-time high. 

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

February 9, 2024

Previously, we thought the 2024 presidential race would feature a replay of 2020. A Special Counsel’s report, however, calls this view into question.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$9,800: The average ticket price for the upcoming matchup between Kansas City and San Francisco, the most expensive on record.

Newsletter

Robust Job Gains and Solid Wage Growth Support Higher for Longer

February 5, 2024

U.S. job creation was nothing short of robust at the start of the year. And, with solid labor demand outpacing worker supply, wage pressures remain strong, perpetuating both the Federal Reserve  assessment of solid labor market conditions and the need for patience in terms of adjusting restrictive policy.

Video

Potomac Perspective

February 6, 2024

A busy week is on tap in Washington, D.C. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear the Colorado ballot access case and the Senate will debate a foreign aid/immigration bill.

Article

Spotlight No. 5: Outlook 2024: Embracing Change The AI Revolution

February 2, 2024

We offer our final “spotlight” for 2024 to summarize the article AI Revolution: Transforming Industries and Investments and discuss how artificial intelligence (AI) is influencing our investment decisions and changing our world.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$2,500: The value of Stanley drinking cups found in a California woman’s car trunk after she allegedly stole them. Please look at this photo.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

February 1, 2024

A corporate tax bill scored an impressive victory last night in the House. The legislation still faces some hurdles in the Senate, but the House vote signals momentum for the bill, and its chances of becoming law have increased. 

Article

January in Review

February 2nd, 2024

The S&P 500 started the year strong, setting a new all-time high and ending January up 1.68% (total return). The return was driven primarily by mega cap technology stocks as the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index was down 0.82%.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 31, 2024

On Monday, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) proposed a policy statement on bank merger applications. However, it raises questions about mergers for banks over $50 billion in assets, officially recognizes that merger applications from global systemically important banks (GSIBs) are unlikely to be approved, and raises a question about mergers of equals.

Article

Q1 Rate Cuts: A Wall Street Fairy Tale?

January 30, 2024

Investors remain exuberant, calling for a series of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts over the next several quarters. Investors have visions of returning to the easier credit conditions of years past dancing in their heads. Such a desire for relief, however, may be clouding their judgment given the Fed’s ongoing message of patience and caution.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 30, 2024

The House might vote this week on a corporate tax bill.  Then again, it might not.  A strong House vote in support of the bill could build momentum for the bill in the Senate, but failure to even vote on the bill could be a warning sign.  Senate negotiations over an immigration bill could also come to a head this week.

Article

Spotlight No. 4: Outlook 2024: Embracing Change Geopolitical Risk Dashboard: A New World

January 26, 2024

Geopolitics are changing our lives, creating a new world. Learn about the risks we are tracking, including U.S.-China competition, Middle East Conflict, and Financial Instability. 

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives

Q1 2024

We review the prior quarter's capital market returns and economic developments in this context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

Article

Favorite 15

January 2024

A selection of slides from our most recent Investment Strategy Brief discussing our Outlook 2024: Embracing Change.

Article

Spotlight No. 3: Outlook 2024: Embracing Change: Our Scenarios

January 19, 2024

Earlier this month, my team and I released our outlook report, Outlook 2024: Embracing Change. This week, we explain our bear and bull scenarios included in our outlook report.

Article

Allocation Insights

Q1 2024

As we step into 2024, a global shift is underway, accompanied by evolving market and economic dynamics. Learn how we are positioning portfolios.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 23, 2024

The New Hampshire primary was the next step toward Donald Trump winning the GOP presidential nomination. Even though Nikki Haley has a one-on-one matchup with Trump, she lacks a realistic chance at beating him in upcoming states.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

8.2%: The decline in champagne shipments from France in 2023 compared to 2022, totaling 299 million bottles.

Newsletter

Economic Insight LIVE Replay

Q1 2024

View the replay webinar of her quarterly series, where Dr. Lindsey Piegza discussed the current environment and her economic outlook for 2024.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 17, 2024

Donald Trump’s rout in Iowa signals an early end to the Republican nomination process. The results from the Iowa caucuses were as expected and do not provide much of a path forward for Trump’s remaining rivals.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 23, 2024

New Hampshire primary is the next step towards Donald Trump winning the GOP presidential nomination.  Even though Nikki Haley has a one-on-one matchup with Trump, she lacks a realistic chance at beating him in upcoming states.  A corporate tax bill has taken an important step towards passing.  The bill’s prospects have improved, but hurdles remain.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

700: The number of jobs added to the IT sector over 2023, a drastic slowdown from the 267,000 jobs added in 2022.

Newsletter

Spotlight No. 2: Outlook 2024: Embracing Change 2024

January 12, 2024

Last week, our team released our outlook report, Outlook 2024: Embracing Change. This week, we share a summary of our economic and market outlook for the coming year.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 10, 2024

2024 is off to a rough start in Washington, D.C. Despite agreements among congressional leaders on top-line budget numbers and a possible corporate tax deal, prospects for averting a partial shutdown and passing a tax bill are murky at best. Similarly, the chances of passing a foreign aid supplemental bill (which has long-term ramifications) don’t look great either.

Article

A Federal Reserve Policy Shift Sets a Positive Tone for 2024

December 2023

In December the Federal Open Market Committee signaled a less hawkish tone and the prospect for rate cuts next year. In this month’s Investment Strategy Brief, we discuss related economic implications, continuing geopolitical tensions, and how these and other factors are driving the market as 2023 comes to a close.

Video

Potomac Perspective

January 12, 2024

“Is this Heaven?” “No. It’s Iowa.” (Field of Dreams)

For some Republican presidential candidates, Iowa might be far from Heaven. It could be the end of the road. We preview some possible takeaways from Monday’s Iowa caucuses.

Article

Outlook 2024 Spotlight #1: A Brief Summary

January 5, 2024

We’re excited to start 2024, and as is our team’s practice, this week we start the year by sharing a brief overview of our Outlook 2024: Embracing Change report.

Article

December in Review

January 1 2024

The S&P 500 ended the year on a positive note, up 4.54% in December, bringing the total return for 2023 to 26.29%. Strong earnings during the year, continued investor optimism for a soft landing, and a change in tone from monetary policymakers helped drive the strong return.

Article

2024 Outlook: Don’t Count Your Chickens Before They Hatch

December 28, 2023

Inflation remains elevated with a disappointing pace of improvement, complicating the Fed’s policy pathway relative to market expectations.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$51: The average amount workers who returned to the office spent a day on commuting, meals, coffee, and parking in 2023, according to a recent company study. 

Newsletter

The Federal Reserve Shares A Change in its Views for 2024 Monetary Policy

December 22, 2023

The results of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting reinforced the idea of change, as the Fed shared what really is a subtle shift in its thinking. We review the results of the Fed’s December meeting and briefly discuss how the Fed’s change in thinking will influence 2024.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 20, 2023

The Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump is ineligible to be on the state’s ballot. We expect the case will go to the U.S. Supreme Court and will be overturned. We explain why and what the practical ramifications are in the event that our view is wrong.

Article

Favorite 15

December 2023

A selection of our slides from our most recent Investment Strategy Brief discussing the geopolitical environment, Federal Reserve policy, economic environment, and the 2024 U.S. elections.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 13, 2023

Federal agencies recently released their updated semiannual agenda which forecast dates for the issuing of new regulatory proposals as well as the finalization of outstanding proposals. It is impossible to cover all agencies, but a few items stood out.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

13.3 million: The number of barrels of oil the United States is set to produce per day during the fourth quarter of this year, a global record, according to a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Newsletter

Beware of Recency Bias and the Allure of Strong Performance

December 15, 2023

The S&P 500 made a strong recovery in 2023 off a down year in 2022. We review the strong allure of the S&P 500’s total return this year, the risks of recency bias, and a look at history to better understand how performance ebbs and flows across different objectives.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$443.5 billion: The amount that developing nations spent on servicing their public debts in 2022, up 5% over the previous year.

Newsletter

2023 Signposts for Finding Balance

December 8, 2023

My team and I are developing our final outlook for 2024, which we plan to publish the first week of January. We started the year with a focus on finding balance, and in our outlook for 2023 we identified several signposts we’d be watching for through the year. We review our signposts for this year as we moved toward finding balance.

Article

Exercising Humility: Where We Were Right…Where We Were Wrong

December 18, 2023

In preparing Stifel’s 2024 economic outlook, it is important to first look back at our 2023 forecast.  Noting accuracies and shortfalls can help reveal and clarify changing trends and variables.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 13, 2023

Federal agencies recently released their updated semiannual agenda which forecast dates for the issuing of new regulatory proposals as well as the finalization of outstanding proposals. It is impossible to cover all agencies, but a few items stood out.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 6, 2023

A pair of key events are on the policy calendar this week. The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in an important case on the taxation of unrealized profits. A decision, which could impact future attempts to tax unrealized capital gains, could be issued in the first half of 2024.

Article

A First Look at the Calculus of the 2024 Presidential Election

December 1, 2023

We discuss the four phases of a presidential election and some early observations for 2024.

Article

Robust Job Growth with Uptick in Monthly Wages Sends Mixed Signal for Inflation Pathway

December 11, 2023

The U.S. labor market remains tight, although there are some indications of conditions improving. Headline job creation remains robust, and a decline in the unemployment rate coupled with an uptick in the workweek suggest there remains a sizable demand for workers heading into the new year.

Video

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Apple and Paramount are in talks to bundle streaming services. I’m not the first to say this, but all of my streaming subscriptions are starting to feel like a cable bill.

Newsletter

Buy Now, Pay Later: Consumers’ Willingness to Spend May be Stronger Than Their Ability

December 4, 2023

The U.S. consumer continues to defy expectations for a material slowdown amid elevated prices. A perceived sense of purchasing power seems to be perpetuating a willingness – justified or not – for consumers to keep spending. However, momentum is fading as short-term supplements, such as a drawdown of savings, a ramp-up of credit card spending, and 401(k) emergency withdrawals, are inching closer to exhaustion.

Article

Favorite 15

November 2023

A selection of our slides from our most recent Investment Strategy Brief Discussing the Israel-Hamas war, the ongoing Fiscal Transition, and the current economic environment.  

Article

November in Review

December 1, 2023

Equity markets had their best monthly performance in over a year, rising 9.13% during November. Markets were bolstered by the continued slowdown in inflation and the view that the Federal Reserve will stop interest rate hikes.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$201,972.66: The total cost of the 12 gifts from the classic song “The Twelve Days of Christmas” according to the PNC Christmas Price Index.

Newsletter

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

30 million: The number of passengers the TSA expects to screen from November 17 through November 28.

Newsletter

Markets Recover on Inflation Relief: 2023 Is Proving to Be Quite a Ride

November 20, 2023

The recent October inflation reports showed progress. Sometimes it is tempting to focus in on one issue, one report, and the immediate market reaction. But 2023 has been filled with a variety of such reports and events that have driven market direction. We briefly review the market dynamics in 2023 and share some details about cooling inflation.

Article

Potomac Perspective

November 30, 2023

Even though the annual spending bills have been punted into 2024, Congress faces a packed schedule in December.

Article

Potomac Perspective

November 21, 2023

Recent press reports alleging a toxic workplace culture at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation are not yet enough to force a change of leadership.

Article

Inflation Three Ways: Still Elevated Price Pressures Reinforce Powell’s Willingness to Raise Rates Further despite Market Skepticism

November 20, 2023

The latest commentary from Fed officials has been mixed at best. Despite the growing noise, however, from both voting and non-voting policy makers, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell seemingly set the tone last week regarding the future of monetary policy and its dependency on the performance of inflation as the driver.

Article

Allocation Insights

Q4 2023

As we end the year, the macroeconomic landscape remains largely unchanged as a wider range of potential outcomes and near-term uncertainties warrant caution. Our dynamic asset allocation guidance continues to reflect that.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$1.08 trillion: The amount that Americans owed on their credit cards in the third quarter, a new record.

Newsletter

Fiscal Transition - Tensions Continue

November

Is the Federal Reserve (Fed) finished with its latest rate hiking program? We are seeing more signs of cooling inflation and a stronger-than-expected economy, but elevated geopolitical tensions and the Fiscal Transition persist.

Video

Potomac Perspective

November 15, 2023

Talks between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping could reestablish military communications between the two countries, which in turn could reduce geopolitical risks – a positive for the markets.  Our base case, however, remains that the U.S. will extend most tariffs on Chinese imports and will impose new restrictions on chip exports.

Article

Mind Your Cutlery: Despite Market Skepticism, Elevated Inflation Could Drive Rates Higher

November 13, 2023

The Federal Open Market Committee opted to leave rates at an upper bound of 5.50% earlier this month, remaining unchanged since July, sparking speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be done with rate hikes altogether.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

9%: The percentage of Americans that do not own a single physical book. On the other hand, 3% own more than 1,000 books.

Newsletter

Third Quarter Earnings Season: Stronger Now, but Weaker Later?

November 10, 2023

The U.S. economy has held up well in 2023, with the first estimate of third quarter GDP much stronger than most expected. As equity investors, we are also quite focused on the degree to which this robust economic activity translates to stock earnings, the primary driver of equity performance. In this Sight|Lines, we share insights from the third quarter earnings season.

Article

Weaker Job Growth and Uptick in Unemployment Rate, but Labor Market Remains Broadly Tight

November 6, 2023

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 150,000 in October, less than the 180,000 gain expected. While the monthly pace of hiring has slowed somewhat, month-to-month volatility aside, the longer-run trend remains firm above 200,000, perpetuating the notion of a tight labor market, although conditions have improved somewhat.

Article

Unwinding Pandemic Distortions: The Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Maintaining Its Restrictive Policy

November 3, 2023

In the meeting this week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its funds rate steady at 5.25%-5.50% and will continue to shrink its securities holdings, a restrictive policy that will likely keep market interest rates higher for longer. We unpack the learnings from the latest Fed meeting and discuss the implications.

Article

Potomac Perspective

November 3, 2023

A year out from the election, we take a look at the state of the race. We currently view Donald Trump as a slight favorite in 2024, but we will be watching the bellwether state of Kentucky for a sign of how 2024 might play out.

Article

October In Review

November 1, 2023

Markets fell as the Israel-Hamas war weighed on sentiment and investors continue to wrestle with the prospect of higher for longer interest rates.

Article

It’s Time to Develop a Plan to Redeploy Cash

October 27, 2023

With increased bond market volatility and a weakening stock market, it is not surprising that some investors have invested in cash equivalents like money market funds or Treasury bills, as yields on these cash-like investments have exceeded 5%. We discuss the rationale for the long-term investor to develop a plan to redeploy cash back to a long-term strategy.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$601: The total cost that U.S. households are expected to pay for natural gas heating this winter, down 21% from last winter

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State of the Economy: Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators

October 30, 2023

Despite the market’s disbelief, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the possibility of a further backup in the federal funds target rate should concerns over inflation remain. Of course, recent events overseas have at the very least complicated the timing for any such action, as the impact of the conflict on monetary policy remains – like the war itself – uncertain.

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Potomac Perspective

October 26, 2023

House Republicans have finally elected a new Speaker of the House. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) is a political conservative but with a moderate temperament.

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Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, is developing a tool to detect AI-generated images and is being touted to be 99% accurate. Finally!

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Favorite 15

October 2023

A selection of our slides from our most recent Investment Strategy Brief discussing the Israel-Hamas war as well as the on going Fiscal Transition from a higher rate regime and increased U.S. debt.

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