SIGHT | LINES

Our Second Half Outlook: The Rewiring of Growth Creates Some Heat

In this week’s Sight|Lines, we update our outlook for the remainder of the year. We keep the constructive base case from Outlook 2026 intact – a resilient economy and broadening artificial intelligence capex cycle still support growth and earnings – but raise our core PCE forecast to 2.75%-3.25% and our 10-year Treasury range to 4.25%-4.75% as we now expect the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh to hold steady in a “Higher for Longer” environment.
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The Warsh Fed’s Five Task Forces: A Balanced Review and Debate

Market Sight|Lines

The Federal Reserve is taking a closer look at itself. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, five task forces have been launched to review how the Fed measures the economy, manages its balance sheet, communicates with markets, and approaches inflation. In this Sight|Lines, we explore what these reviews could mean for monetary policy and why changes to Fed communication may matter most for investors.

Quarterly Market Perspectives

Third Quarter | 2026

After an unsettled start to the year, the second quarter saw markets roar back – even as a new Federal Reserve chair, firmer inflation, and a fragile Middle East de-escalation reshaped the path for growth, rates, and returns. We examine how these forces are shaping our second-half outlook and what they could mean for investor positioning.

Stifel NextGen Voices: From Analyst to CEO – Lessons from a Decades Long Career

We sat down with Tom Michaud, President & CEO of KBW and Co-Head of Investment Banking at Stifel, for an exclusive conversation four decades in the making.

From how financial services has evolved, to why artificial intelligence will enhance – not replace – human judgment, Tom shares the lessons that have defined his career. His guidance: invest in yourself and treat your career like a stock.

Whether you’re just getting started or years into your career, this is a conversation worth watching.

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