SIGHT | LINES
Coercive Diplomacy: The Managed Off-Ramp Is Proving Bumpy
The Warsh Fed’s Five Task Forces: A Balanced Review and Debate
Market Sight|Lines
The Federal Reserve is taking a closer look at itself. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, five task forces have been launched to review how the Fed measures the economy, manages its balance sheet, communicates with markets, and approaches inflation. In this Sight|Lines, we explore what these reviews could mean for monetary policy and why changes to Fed communication may matter most for investors.
Quarterly Market Perspectives
Third Quarter | 2026
After an unsettled start to the year, the second quarter saw markets roar back – even as a new Federal Reserve chair, firmer inflation, and a fragile Middle East de-escalation reshaped the path for growth, rates, and returns. We examine how these forces are shaping our second-half outlook and what they could mean for investor positioning.
Our Second Half Outlook: The Rewiring of Growth Creates Some Heat
Market Sight|Lines
In this Sight|Lines, we update our outlook for the remainder of the year. We keep the constructive base case from Outlook 2026 intact – a resilient economy and broadening artificial intelligence capex cycle still support growth and earnings – but raise our core PCE forecast to 2.75%-3.25% and our 10-year Treasury range to 4.25%-4.75% as we now expect the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh to hold steady in a “Higher for Longer” environment.
