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SIGHT | LINES

Our Second Half Outlook: The Rewiring of Growth Creates Some Heat

In this week’s Sight|Lines, we update our outlook for the remainder of the year. We keep the constructive base case from Outlook 2026 intact – a resilient economy and broadening artificial intelligence capex cycle still support growth and earnings – but raise our core PCE forecast to 2.75%-3.25% and our 10-year Treasury range to 4.25%-4.75% as we now expect the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh to hold steady in a “Higher for Longer” environment.
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Second-Quarter Earnings: Lofty Expectations

Market Sight|Lines

With stocks at record highs, earnings season is about to test whether corporate profits can keep pace with elevated expectations. In this week's Sight|Lines, we discuss why analysts are forecasting one of the strongest quarters of earnings growth in years – and why the bar is now much higher.

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Quarterly Market Perspectives

Third Quarter | 2026

After an unsettled start to the year, the second quarter saw markets roar back – even as a new Federal Reserve chair, firmer inflation, and a fragile Middle East de-escalation reshaped the path for growth, rates, and returns. We examine how these forces are shaping our second-half outlook and what they could mean for investor positioning.

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Stifel NextGen Voices: From Analyst to CEO – Lessons from a Decades Long Career

We sat down with Tom Michaud, President & CEO of KBW and Co-Head of Investment Banking at Stifel, for an exclusive conversation four decades in the making.

From how financial services has evolved, to why artificial intelligence will enhance – not replace – human judgment, Tom shares the lessons that have defined his career. His guidance: invest in yourself and treat your career like a stock.

Whether you’re just getting started or years into your career, this is a conversation worth watching.

WATCH

More Insights

Weekly Market Perspectives

July 3, 2026

The S&P 500 rose last week, though early optimism gave way to caution after a soft June jobs report, as a semiconductor selloff surfaced the question of whether AI buildout has run ahead of demand.

Article

Stifel Bits

Tom Michaud, CEO of Stifel’s Keefe, Bruyette & Woods subsidiary, isn’t worried. “I don’t care how much AI there is. It’s not going to replace a human being who understands the analysis and can give good advice,” he said in a discussion in our recent NextGen Voices webinar. “I’m using AI to make me smarter so I can still be that trusted advisor.” In other words, AI is the calculator, not the accountant – a tool that sharpens judgment rather than replacing it.

Article

June in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

U.S. equities pulled back, with the S&P 500 falling in June and slipping from record highs as a late-month sell-off in technology weighed on the cap-weighted index, offsetting strength in value, defensive, and smaller-cap areas of the market.

Article

Economic Insight LIVE Client Webinar

Economic Insight LIVE Replay

Watch Stifel’s Chief Economist, Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., as she presents her latest quarterly economic update.

Video

Favorite 15

June Favorite 15

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief exploring how a U.S.-Iran agreement may shape our second half outlook, including a discussion about GDP growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, yields, equities, and why market performance may broaden.

Article

Possible Middle East Peace: Implications for Our Second Half Outlook

Investment Strategy Brief

We explore how a U.S.-Iran agreement may shape our second half outlook, including a discussion about GDP growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, yields, equities, and why market performance may broaden.

Video

Stifel Bits

2: The number of 0.25% rate hikes investors expect from the Federal Reserve between now and March.

16: The minimum age the UK will require for accessing major social media platforms, starting early next year.

Article

Fed Holds Rates Steady in June

Economic Insight

As expected, the Federal Reserve opted to hold rates steady in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting.

Video

Potomac Perspective

June 17, 2026

A bicameral agreement on a housing bill seems to lean towards the House’s version of the legislation. This is a positive for the build-to-rent sector. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act also includes regulatory relief for the manufactured housing industry and some modest changes to community bank regulation. Despite the rhetoric, the bill is unlikely to have a material impact on housing prices in the near-term.

Article

Interest Rate Worries: Higher for Longer?

Market Sight|Lines

The case for “higher for longer” interest rates is strengthening. Firming inflation, a resilient job market, and mounting government debt are putting upward pressure on rates and complicating the Federal Reserve’s path forward. We break down the data driving this shift – and the potential implications for growth and equity market volatility.

Article

The State of the U.S. Agricultural Sector

The State of the U.S. Agricultural Sector

Agriculture accounted for nearly 7% of the U.S. economy just 25 years ago but is currently only around 4.5%.

Article

Stifel Bits

Want to stay hip? Same. Here’s the newest thing on the TikTok block as reported by the New York Times: mogging. It’s Gen Alpha slang for completely outshining someone – whether it’s looks, talent, or just winning the group photo. If you got “mogged,” someone clearly stole the spotlight. Harsh? Maybe. Funny? Unfortunately, yes.

Article

Supply and Demand Are Both Keeping Inflation in Focus

Market Sight | Lines

Inflation has eased from its post-pandemic highs, but it remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. We examine why inflation is harder to read, complicating the Fed’s policy path, and keeping investors focused on the risk of higher-for-longer rates.

Article

A Closer Look at the U.S. Debt Burden

Special Edition Economic Insight


The U.S. debt burden has grown to $39 trillion, surpassing another grim milestone only five months after passing $38 trillion. The massive growth in the U.S. government’s debt load ̶ which is adding $1 trillion every 163 days, running annual budget deficits of near $2 trillion, and a deficit to GDP ratio of 6.0% ̶ appears to be unsustainable. 

Article

May in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

Resilient earnings, easing Middle East tensions, and renewed artificial intelligence enthusiasm extended the U.S. equity rally to nine straight weeks, even with sticky inflation and an increasingly divided Federal Reserve.

Article

Stifel Bits

Recruiters don’t just want resumes anymore – they want AI magic tricks. From marketing to venture capital, candidates are now expected to use tools like Claude Code live in interviews. Building dashboards, cleaning data, and automating tasks on the spot is the new workplace flex. Forget “Where do you see yourself in five years?” Just vibe code.

Article

Geopolitical Risk as a New Normal: Investing in a More Fragmented World

Market Sight | Lines

Geopolitical risk is becoming a more persistent force shaping markets, supply chains, inflation, and corporate strategy. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we discuss why we believe investors should focus less on predicting the next event and more on building portfolios around quality, diversification, pricing power, and resilience.

Article

Favorite 15

May Favorite 15

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief discussing how artificial intelligence, earnings resilience, and steady consumer activity continue to support growth, while firmer inflation, higher Treasury yields, fiscal concerns, and geopolitical risks create a narrower margin for error. 

Article

A Managed Off-Ramp Takes Shape: Markets, Inflation, and the Fed

Market Sight|Lines

After nearly four months of fighting, the U.S. and Iran have agreed to a framework. Markets responded quickly: oil fell, equities hit record highs, and Treasury yields and inflation expectations eased. We analyze the immediate impact across oil, stocks, and rates, examine shifting inflation expectations, and discuss the implications for the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision this week.

Article

Stifel Bits

Remember when the day’s biggest stress was your Wordle score? NBC just said “hold my coffee” and turned it into a primetime game show. Savannah Guthrie will host, while the rest of us relive the emotional damage of family Wordle group chats. If you know, you know.

The green energy race now includes solar, wind, nuclear, and even kelp. Scientists are exploring seaweed as a biofuel for planes and ships, which still rely on oil. Boats may run on kelp before we get self-tying shoes. Priorities, people

Article

Elevated Risks to Employment and Inflation amid International Uncertainty and Conflict Complicate Outlook for Policy

Economic Insight

As expected, the Federal Reserve opted to hold rates steady in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its April meeting. Several members, however, advocated for replacing the existing easing bias in the statement with a neutral policy stance, signaling the Fed’s next move could equally be a rate cut or rate hike.

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Allocation Insights

2Q 2026 Allocation Insights

The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.0% annualized pace in Q1 2026, supported by resilient
consumer spending and continued strength in artificial intelligence-related investment.
Despite ongoing conflict in the Middle East and a sharp rise in crude oil prices since the start of
the year, we expect full-year growth to remain within our initial 1.75%-2.50% range. 

Article

Revised Housing Legislation

Potomac Perspective

The House could vote next week on a revised housing bill. The updated bill includes a restriction, favored by the Trump administration, to limit the ownership of single-family homes by institutional investors. It is also more flexible on build-to-rent (BTR) than is the Senate’s housing bill.

May 15, 2026

Article

Senate Banking Committee Advances Crypto Bill

Potomac Perspective 

The Senate Banking Committee approved the CLARITY Act, 15-9. Two committee Democrats joined all 13 Republicans in advancing the bill to the Senate floor. The vote was clearly a positive for the bill’s prospects, but it also carried some warning signs. The bill’s prospects improved, but we think by less than what others perceive to be the case.

May 15, 2026

Article

Artificial Intelligence: From Promise to Measured Impact

Market Sight | Lines

AI is transitioning from a long-term investment theme to a measurable driver of markets and the economy. Capex is surging, earnings are strengthening, and AI-related investment is showing up in GDP.

Article

Stifel Bits

China’s $1 billion fix for aging infrastructure: 8,500 artificial intelligence robots that open control boxes, spot electrical leaks, and handle daily maintenance … basically a tireless robot workforce that never calls in sick or asks for overtime. Yay for productivity?

With AI everywhere and nonstop headlines about robots “taking jobs,” it’s easy for graduating students to feel doomed before their first LinkedIn post. But fear not: There are still places where college grads are actually landing real, well‑paying jobs that haven’t been outsourced to our future robot managers.

Article

Gaming Out the CLARITY Act Markup

Potomac Perspective 

The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to mark up cryptocurrency legislation (the CLARITY Act) on Thursday. Despite efforts to reach a compromise on the Stablecoin yield issue, as well as other matters, we doubt that there is sufficient bipartisan support to pass the legislation through the full Senate.

May 12, 2026

Article

Trump Goes to China, Renewed Push for Housing Bill

Potomac Perspective

Washington has a busy week on tap. We discuss our expectations for Trump’s trip to China, a renewed focus on housing legislation, as well as the possibility that a gas tax holiday might pass. We also follow up on today’s earlier note on the CLARITY Act.

May 12, 2026

Article

AI and the Future of Work: Efficiency, Demand, and the Jevons Effect

Market Sight|Lines

Better steam engines increased, rather than reduced, coal use – an example of the Jevons paradox. With artificial intelligence, the same dynamic may apply, potentially driving greater demand for analysis, coding, drafting, design, service, and research.

Article

Stablecoin Proposal Doesn't Change the Outlook and the SEC's Reporting Proposal

Potomac Perspective

A proposed compromise on the Stablecoin yield issue won the general support of the crypto industry, but the banking sector said, “not enough.” We don’t think that the compromise improves the CLARITY Act’s prospects, and we continue to believe that it has an approximately 40% chance of passing in 2026. The SEC has proposed new rules that would allow publicly traded companies to file reports with the Commission on a semi-annual basis rather than quarterly. As expected, the switch would be voluntary, and we expect that most companies will continue to issue quarterly reports.

Article

Stifel Bits

10,000: The approximate number of new exoplanet candidates uncovered from NASA telescope data.

Article

Fed Holds Rates Steady in April

Economic Insight


As expected, the Federal Reserve opted to hold rates steady in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday. Furthermore, while remaining relatively positive regarding the current state of the economy despite the international conflict, the statement noted a growing concern regarding inflation, with several members in favor of replacing the easing bias with a more neutral stance. At the very least, a cohort of dissents sends a signal to both the market and new leadership that many agree the data do not support any additional accommodation at this point, and furthermore, any push to implement such will potentially face fierce opposition.

Video

An Update on Private Credit

Market Sight | Lines

Private credit has grown rapidly into a $1.8 trillion market. Recently, there’s been a focus on defaults and increasing redemption requests from private credit. While pockets of stress are emerging in select industries, we see no evidence of broad deterioration or systemic risk. We break down what’s driving the concern and what investors should be watching next. 

Article

April in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

A resilient U.S. economy, strong earnings, and a cease fire in the Middle East helped the S&P 500 to a new all-time high despite persistent inflation pressures and an increasingly divided Federal Reserve. 

Article

Stifel Bits

20%: The percentage of Gen Z students who are searching for scholarships on TikTok at least once a week.

14,000 miles: The record for the longest trip on a three-wheeled vehicle, recently achieved by two guys who drove a Reliant Robin car from London to the southern tip of Africa, passing through 22 countries.

Article

Federal Reserve March Meeting Recap and Update on Member Composition

Economic Insight 

Even before the Iranian crisis, the Fed faced a high bar to justify further easing absent a meaningful rise in unemployment or slowdown in inflation, though a more dovish Chair could push through one additional cut this year.

Article

The Kevin Warsh Nomination: The American Process Is Working

Market Sight | Lines

Under Kevin Warsh’s leadership, the Federal Reserve would likely offer less "prepackaged" forward guidance, requiring investors to interpret inflation, growth, and policy in real time. This approach could result in speedier price discovery and a sturdier market structure over time, even if it leads to a modestly higher term and risk premia in the near term.

Article

Headwinds & Tailwinds in 2026: Middle East Conflict and Artificial Intelligence

Investment Strategy Brief

We discuss environment headwinds and tailwinds in 2026, especially around the Middle East Conflict and Artificial Intelligence.

Video

Favorite 15

April Favorite 15

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief discussing environmental headwinds and tailwinds in 2026, especially around the Middle East conflict and artificial intelligence.

Article

Stifel Bits

3,476,721: The number of Americans named Michael, making it the most popular male name in the U.S.

1,765,503: The number of Americans named Mary, making it the most popular female name in the U.

Article

Stifel Bits

Alright Citrini, we get it. The Strait of Hormuz is confusing, so CitriniResearch sent “Analyst #3” with gear, cigars, cash, and Zyn. Mission complete, “findings” are out there. Most important takeaway: “#3” made it home safe. 

Survivor meets Chopped? I’m listening. Chopped Castaways is a new series hosted by Ted Allen, in which chefs cook over open fires on a remote island, building kitchens from scratch. Honestly … Food Network is doing the most to keep us entertained. 

Article

Warsh Hearing and the Start of Reconciliation

Potomac Perspective 

Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing and the Senate’s work on a reconciliation bill are the two big policy events of this week. 

Warsh’s main audiences will be the president and the markets rather than the Senate. He is likely to be confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chairman although the timing remains uncertain.

April 20, 2026

 

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Potomac Perspective

Potomac Perspective 

President Trump’s threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could simply be a way for Trump to deflect blame for the economy onto Powell. We explain that although a hearing date has been set for Kevin Warsh’s nomination to be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve Board, an ongoing investigation into the Fed and current Chairman Powell will continue to delay his confirmation.

April 15, 2026

Article

Despite March Employment Rebound, Ample Uncertainty is Likely to Keep the Federal Reserve Sidelined

Economic Insight


While there was a welcome rebound in March payrolls after earlier weakness in February, the trend pace of job creation remains a modest 68,000. Although, given the aged nature of the recovery, technology adoption, and a reduction in international labor flows, the breakeven rate for job creation is markedly lower than in years past. Of course, there remain further downside risks to job creation and the broader economy, particularly as inflation remains elevated with further upside potential given the ongoing conflict overseas as the threat of higher energy prices seeps into the broader economy.

Video

A First Look at the 2026 Midterms

Potomac Perspective 

The 2026 primary season is in full swing, so it’s time to take our first look at the midterm elections. The House is likely to flip to the Democrats. In the Senate, Republicans are currently favored to keep the Senate, but a shift in voter sentiment in key states could flip that chamber, too.

April, 6 2026

Article

Global Impacts of the U.S./Israel-Iran Conflict

Market Sight | Lines

When it comes to peace in the Middle East, the U.S. says we’re negotiating, and Iran is denying it all. While peace talks may be possible, it is important to prepare for an extended conflict. Check out SightLines to better understand how a prolonged conflict may impact our lives … and our markets.

Article

Iran Conflict: What Happened, and What It Means for Market

Market Sight|Lines

For months, U.S. and Iranian representatives have engaged in on-again, off-again indirect nuclear negotiations, with Oman playing a key intermediary role and the latest round taking place in Geneva. President Trump continued to signal that military action remained on the table if diplomacy failed to deliver meaningful progress.

March 12, 2026

Article

Stifel Bits

“I don’t have any ability to predict what stocks will do next week or next month, and
I will buy them if they’re cheap. I’ll buy a whole lot of them if they’re cheap, and I
think I really understand the business ... ”

– Famed investor Warren Buffett during a recent CNBC interview.

Article

The Fed Holds Rates Steady As Financial Conditions Tighten And Markets Further React to the Conflict

Market Sight|Lines

The Federal Reserve held rates steady amid rising uncertainty tied to the escalating Middle East conflict, signaling concern over higher inflation driven by surging energy prices. Markets have reacted with increased volatility, as oil and gas prices spike and equities, especially outside the U.S., decline. 

March 20, 2026

Article

Iran War: Tactical Considerations and Four Possible Scenarios

Investment Strategy Brief

Day-to-day attention on the U.S./Israel war with Iran naturally focuses on tactical issues, including oil prices and economic/market implications. We unpack these tactical considerations and also offer four possible scenarios for an end to this war.

Video

Stifel Bits

60: The approximate amount of ski resorts in the U.S. West that will close early or never opened this year due to the mild winter.

Article

Increased Headline Risk Looming from Reconciliation Pay-fors

Potomac Perspective 

A second reconciliation bill might be back on the table as Republicans figure out how to approve additional funds for defense and reopen the Department of Homeland Security. If Republicans pursue reconciliation, then additional tax cuts could also be on the table. So could offsets.

April 1, 2026

Article

March in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

The conflict with Iran has reignited inflation concerns and forced markets to rapidly reprice policy expectations. The result was a surge in energy prices, a broad global selloff in equities, and rising yields.

Article

Iran Conflict: The Hidden Shortages That May Matter Most

Supply disruptions often appear isolated at first, but shortages that begin upstream tend to deliver broader and more delayed economic damage than investors initially expect. While the Iran conflict has put oil in focus, a range of upstream inputs, many of which sit at the front of long production chains, are also being affected. In this Sight|Lines, we highlight where less obvious pressures may emerge and what investors should watch as these disruptions move downstream.

Article

Favorite 15

March Favorite 15

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief discussing tactical and strategic considerations around the U.S./Israel war with Iran. We also offer four possible scenarios for an end to this war.

Article

Crypto Update

Potomac Perspective 

The prospects for passing the CLARITY Act have improved as a compromise regarding the Stablecoin yield issue may have opened the door to a markup in the Senate Banking Committee. Despite our increased optimism for the bill’s chances, it still faces an uphill climb. We discuss some of the hurdles in its path.

March 31, 2026

Article

Economic Insight LIVE

Economic Insight LIVE

Join Economic Insight LIVE, with Lindsey Piegza, April 9, where Dr. Piegza offers her quarterly economic outlook and views on the current environment.

Video

Stifel Bits

Why didn’t anyone tell me (vibe) coding was easy? It looks like junior engineers just ask AI to do everything – until you see the results. A CodeRabbit report reviewing 470 pull requests found AI‑generated code had 1.7 times more issues than human work. So maybe just “telling AI what to do” isn’t quite the move yet.

Article

Economic Insight

Now in its third week, the Iranian conflict continues to weigh on markets as investors and everyday consumers brace for the uncertainty of war. The conflict will surely exacerbate higher prices and supply disruptions that were already well rooted due to significant recent revisions to international policy, including tariffs.

Article

Powell, Housing Policy, and Changes in Bank Capital Rules

Potomac Perspective

A federal judge quashed grand jury subpoenas of the Federal Reserve Board, which were part of the criminal probe of Chairman Jerome Powell. The Justice Department immediately appealed the decision. This could delay the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman and leave Powell in place for the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

March 16, 2026

Article

Stifel Bits

1 hour: The delivery time that Amazon is planning for hundreds of locations. The cost? $9.99 for Prime members and $19.99 for non-Prime members.

Article

Stifel Bits

$12 trillion: The projected annual global retail spending power of Gen Z by 2030.

Article

Economic Insights

A weaker-than-expected February employment report, following a stronger-than-expected rise in January, leaves growing uncertainty regarding the underlying trajectory of labor market conditions and will no doubt perpetuate the divide at the Fed. After all, while job creation has become increasingly volatile month-to-month, reflecting in good part a prolonged government shutdown and extreme weather conditions, the unemployment rate remains impressively low, and earnings growth is solid.

Video

Unpacking Motivations: Four Scenarios to an End to the War with Iran

Market Sight|Lines

While we continue to acknowledge the human cost of war, we must also look further to continue to assess the economic and market implications going forward. We move past immediate reactions to analyze near- and long-term impacts through a framework of four potential scenarios shaped by the motivations of the U.S., Israel, the Iranian regime, and the Iranian people.

Article

Iran Escalation: What it Means for Markets and Investors

Stifel Client Webinar

The geopolitical landscape fundamentally shifted over the weekend following coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes (Operations "Epic Fury" and "Roaring Lion") against Iranian military targets. With Iran retaliating across the Gulf and disruption risk elevated around the Strait of Hormuz, markets are reacting – particularly across energy, rates, and broader risk sentiment.

Video

Stifel Bits

-10%: The year-over-year decline in AMC movie attendance globally in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Article

Artificial Intelligence in 2026: Opportunities, Risks, and Fears

Investment Strategy Brief

We discuss artificial intelligence optimism, raising valuations, and volatility driven by investors trying to gauge winners and losers over the long term. In this pursuit, investors have begun to “sell now, ask questions later,” setting aside fundamentals.

Video

NextGen Voices: Alex Dees

Have you ever thought about becoming your own boss? We sat down with Alex Dees, Co‑Founder of Meridian, a New York startup helping brands understand and improve how they show up across AI search—the new frontier of digital visibility.

Video

Policy Execution and Reform Support Japan Equities

Market Sight|Lines

We’ve been positive on Japan with the anticipation of improving growth, rising capex, and corporate governance reforms. Some investors have anchored their case for Japan equities on how a weaker yen can help exporters, but we’re seeing a shift. Following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election victory and a mandate for fiscal expansion, investors are focusing more on durable domestic earnings growth. This week, we discuss how the improving investment environment in Japan reinforces our positive views looking forward.

Article

Economic Insight

Varying from state to state and across regions, the country as a whole continues to face both new opportunities in 2026 as well as lingering themes carried forward from last year. With a generally positive growth trend, labor market conditions remain relatively stable, although firms continue to face difficulties sourcing and retaining skilled labor. Investment levels, while positive, continue to be impacted by tariff and new trade policies. As such, most businesses are, or are considering, passing on at least some costs to consumers. Additionally, while a retrenchment in prices has been recorded, housing broadly continues to face affordability limitations caused by elevated mortgage rates and low inventory levels.

Article

Favorite 15

Charts from our CIO Office team, on topics impacting markets, the economy, and investor portfolios.

Article

Stifel Bits

2.4: The average number of times participants in a sleep study hit the snooze button after the snooze alarm
went off.

Article

Iran's Impact on U.S. Domestic Policy Agenda

Potomac Perspective 

The situation in the Middle East will impact the Trump administration’s domestic economic agenda as Congress’s attention has now been diverted to international developments. Although Republicans had planned to focus on affordability-related legislation such as a housing bill, the attack on Iran will take priority in Congress. How long domestic economic issues are set aside will be determined by the evolution of events abroad.

March 2, 2026

Article

Geopolitical Dashboard: A Fragmented World

The world is shifting from an era of globalization to one marked by increased localization and protectionism, increasing geopolitical risks, and uncertainty. The Stifel Geopolitical Dashboard aims to identify and assess the likelihood and investment considerations of key geopolitical risks and events that have the potential to create market volatility over the next three to five years.

Article

Allocation Insights

Q1 | 2026

Structural forces are reshaping the economy, with AI influencing productivity, capital investment, and market leadership. As leadership evolves and broadens, diversification across regions, sectors, and styles becomes increasingly important.

Article

February in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

Strong earnings, AI driven market rotation, rising safe-haven demand, and a possible new Federal Reserve framework defined February. The market backdrop remains constructive, though volatility may remain elevated in the coming months.

Article

State of the Union Takeaways

Potomac Perspective

President Trump’s State of the Union (SOTU) address was full of political theatre but included fewer economic policy proposals than we were expecting. The absence of some proposals was notable. We review a few of the speech’s economic policy proposals and discuss the prospects for their enactment. As is typically the case, the SOTU was about political messaging. The reality is that few of these ideas will be enacted ahead of the midterm elections

February 25, 2026

Article

Stifel Bits

3: The total number of career gold medals won by Mikaela Shiffrin after her latest gold in the slalom, tying her for second-most golds by a U.S. Winter Olympian.

Article

From Vision to Value: Our Long-Term Investment Themes

Long-Term Investment Themes

Artificial Intelligence remains a foundational, cross-cutting theme across our framework. In our latest refresh, we add two new sub-themes: Continental Shift, reflecting a push toward domestic capacity and nearshoring to improve resilience and secure critical inputs; and Defense Modernization, reflecting sustained investment in next-generation defense, as geopolitical competition and conflict intensify.

Article

Market Pulse

Global markets opened the week risk-off as the U.S.-Israel military operation against Iran escalated into a widening regional conflict. Stay current on market developments with timely commentary.

Article

AI Optimism Abounds, but Some Industries Are Punished with Indiscriminate Selling Market Sight|Lines

Market Sight|Lines

AI is reshaping workflows across industries, boosting productivity and long-term potential. But as new capabilities emerge, markets often shift to a “sell now, ask questions later” mindset. In volatile moments, fundamentals and disciplined process should guide investment decisions. We discuss what’s behind this volatility and the investor considerations it raises from here.

Article

Economic Insight

Following earlier indications of potential weakness at the start of the year, the latest payrolls report showed labor market conditions broadly strengthened in January, offering a welcome support for the U.S. consumer which appeared to falter somewhat at year-end.

Article

Economic Insight

The U.S. economy accelerated in the second half of last year, rising to a +4% GDP pace in Q3 with expectations of similarly solid activity in Q4. The pace of job creation slowed heading into 2026, but it remained positive and within a range the Federal Reserve believes is necessary to maintain full employment.

Article

The Nomination of Kevin Warsh: His Leadership and Approach May Smooth Out How We Experience Risk

Market Sight|Lines

The nomination and potential appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair may signal a fundamental shift in the central bank’s operational approach, moving away from an era of seeking to dampen market fluctuations through high-frequency guidance toward a framework anchored in institutional discipline defined by both transparency and accountability.

Article

Another Shutdown and Bessent on Capitol Hill

Potomac Perspective

A partial government shutdown is likely to last at least a few more days. Markets, however, are unlikely to react to closure headlines. While the economic impact of the shutdown will be limited and temporary, the IPO market will likely stay closed until the Securities and Exchange Commission reopens.

February 3, 2026

Article

Congress Back in Action: Spending Battles and Policy Priorities Ahead

Potomac Perspective 

We expect that Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome Powell as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, will face some opposition in the Senate. Despite the political drama, it is likely that he will be confirmed. 

January 30, 2026

Article

Economic Insight

As expected, the Fed opted to lower the federal funds target rate 25 basis points (bps) this week to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the second consecutive reduction this year and now marking 150 bps in cuts since September of last year.

Video

January in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

Markets entered 2026 with renewed momentum as easing inflation, resilient consumers, and broadening equity leadership helped support risk assets. January saw value stocks, small caps, and international markets outperforming mega cap growth.

Article

Gold, Silver, and Other Precious Metals Move from Inflation Hedge to a Possible Fiscal Trajectory Hedge

Market Sight|Lines

This week, we discuss how gold, silver, and other precious metals are shifting from an inflation hedge to a Fiscal Trajectory hedge and share possible drivers of three directions from here: even higher highs, a sideways market, and setting up for a pullback.

Article

Stifel Bits

1991: The last time the Indiana Hoosiers won a college football bowl game before winning the 2025 national championship with a perfect 16-0 record.

Article

Another Shutdown, Crypto Happenings, Avoiding Credit Card Legislation

Potomac Perspective 

The Saturday shooting of a man in Minnesota plus the east coast snowstorm are likely to impact the Senate’s schedule this week. Thus, the odds of a partial government shutdown have risen materially which could impact the capital markets. Also, the markup of a crypto bill has been postponed until Thursday, and it appears that a credit card network bill will not be added to it.

January 27, 2026

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives

We review the prior quarter’s capital market returns and economic developments in the context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

Article

Stifel Bits

135: The number of consecutive games NFL teams have lost when down by at least 15 points entering the fourth quarter. Yet, the opposite happened five times this season.

Article

Outlook 2026: Rewiring Growth Investment Strategy Brief

Investment Strategy Brief

As we begin the next quarter century, we’re mindful of risks like geopolitical tensions and elevated equity valuations, even as we’re optimistic about the increased productivity from artificial intelligence. In this month’s Investment Strategy Brief, we look back at 2025 and review our outlook for 2026, including the impact of AI, the economy, and the markets.

Video

Possibilities for Credit Card Legislation

Potomac Perspective
 
In the wake of Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s comment this week that the Senate could vote on the Credit Card Competition Act, we look at how and when the bill might come up for a vote. Despite President Trump’s endorsement, we still think the chances of the bill passing are less than 50/50.

January 16, 2026

Article

Complicating Matters at the Fed

Potomac Perspective

The Department of Justice (DOJ) has launched an investigation of Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell. This action complicates life for whoever is nominated to succeed him. The confirmation process has become more difficult, as has leading the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

January 13, 2026

Article

Stifel Bits

27 million: The decline in vehicle trips into New York City’s congestion zone in the first year since congestion pricing was put in place.

Article

High Hurdles for Credit Card Cap

Potomac Perspective 

After Friday’s close, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he is calling for a one-year cap of 10% APR on credit cards starting January 20. This is an idea he had floated during the 2024 campaign. We discuss ways in which this could be implemented. While we think none of these options are easy, we believe this issue could have some staying power and create a headline risk to the credit card industry for some time.

January 12, 2026 

Article

Economic Insight

The modest increase in December payrolls and decline in the unemployment rate come on the heels of a similarly unimpressive but positive rise in private sector hiring according to ADP, relatively low initial jobless claims, and a welcome jump in the services sector employment component to a 10-month high.

Article

Busy Year-End Agenda

Potomac Perspective 

December will be a busy month in the policy world as Congress races to enact “must-pass” legislation, such as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), before the Christmas holidays. Expiring subsidies for Obamacare healthcare insurance plans could also force a deal on healthcare policy.

December 2, 2025

Article

Outlook 2026: Rewiring Growth Spotlight No. 1: A Brief Summary

Market Sight|Lines

As is our practice at the start of each year, we released our annual outlook report, Outlook 2026: Rewiring Growth. The report brings together a series of articles designed to help investors look back at the forces that shaped 2025 and look forward to the themes, risks, and opportunities that may define the year ahead. You can read the full report, watch a video summary, or join our upcoming client webinar, but in this week’s Sight|Lines, we offer a brief overview of the publication and its major components.

Article

U.S. Reshoring and Nearshoring: A Sustainable Economic Tailwind

Market Sight | Lines

Investors are increasingly worried about market levels and the possibility of an artificial intelligence (AI) “bubble.” Despite the worries, however, during earnings calls and elsewhere, executives are highlighting a powerful, long-term positive theme: making more in America. What began as a reaction to pandemic-era disruptions has evolved into a structural reindustrialization cycle that will shape U.S. investment, employment, and infrastructure in the decades ahead.

Article

Congress Back in Action: Spending Battles and Policy Priorities Ahead

Potomac Perspective

Now that the government has reopened, Congress will begin to address numerous policy matters that were shelved during the recent shutdown. The spending debate, however, remains the primary issue as nine appropriations bills still need to be passed by the end of January to avoid the possibility of another stoppage.

November 18, 2025

Article

A Credit Market Check-In: Limited Risks or Systemic Issues?

Market Sight|Lines

Recent defaults in the private credit market briefly unsettled investors and underscored how higher rates and tighter financial conditions can stress even strong credit segments. In our latest Sight|Lines, we take a “credit check-in,” reviewing conditions across private, consumer, and corporate credit markets ̶ and what to watch for as the economy slows over the next few quarters.

Article

Artificial Intelligence in the Digital Realm: Security and Finance

Market Sight|Lines

Artificial intelligence (AI) is spreading fastest in areas already digital by their nature. In cybersecurity, AI is being deployed to detect anomalies, manage threats, and automate responses. In financial services, firms use AI to improve trading, customer engagement, and compliance. We discuss AI applications in security and finance.

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NextGen Investor Handbook

Introducing the NextGen Investor Handbook, a practical and engaging resource designed to help recent grads and young professionals navigate life-changing financial decisions and milestones, including budgeting, saving, investing, and starting a family. Flip through the handbook and take the first step toward building your financial future!

Article

Learning From Next Generation Investors: Stifel’s 2025 Intern Survey

Market Sight|Lines

We’ve just completed our 2025 Intern Survey, providing insights into the attitudes and preferences of this next generation. We discuss these preferences as well as the risks and opportunities for the next generation of investors.

Article

The World in 2035: From Vision to Value

Throughout history, even the most brilliant minds have made predictions that have not quite stood the test of time. Yet, for investors, anticipating the megatrends influencing the economy and markets is crucial for successful investing. This year, we set out to imagine how our long-term investment themes could shape the world of 2035, exploring their transformative potential. Here are 10 ways how the world may be different over the next decade.

Article

An Update – From Vision to Value: Our Long-Term Investment Themes

Market Sight|Lines

Recently, we've covered short-term topics, but it's crucial for investors to keep an eye on the long-term changes in our world. Let’s dive into our long-term investment themes, highlighting value-creation opportunities that will shape the way we live, interact, and consume goods and services.

Article

Caution or Optimism: Can AI Counter a Potential Economic Slowdown?

April Investment Strategy Brief 

We delve into continued inflationary pressures, Fed policy, and the health of the U.S. consumer. We also examine the rally in commodity prices, the global election supercycle, and related investment implications.

Article

AI Will Change Our Future; It’s Transforming Our World Today

April 12, 2024

The strong stock market results this year celebrate the potential for artificial intelligence (AI). And while big, tech-oriented companies are driving this performance, the opportunity goes well beyond tech-oriented stocks. We review the concept of AI and zoom in on some real-life uses that are already transforming our world today.

Article

INVESTORʼS HANDBOOK FOR ELECTION YEARS

In each election year, the prevailing narrative seems to suggest that our country stands at a crossroads with the potential for significant consequences. This often creates uncertainty for investors and leads to market volatility. The temptation to react impulsively to political changes can be strong, but amid this uncertainty, a disciplined and long-term approach to investing becomes paramount. 

Brochure

FIVE TIPS TO NAVIGATE A BEAR MARKET

When stocks enter a bear market, dropping more than 20% from their recent peak, losses may feel like they’ll never end. Some investors even panic and make irrational investment decisions that may jeopardize long-term goals and objectives. Here are five tips to help you navigate a bear market.

Article

UAE Leaves OPEC: The Rising Role of the U.S. in Global Energy Markets

Market Sight | Lines

The UAE’s exit from OPEC underscores a longer-term decline in the cartel’s influence, as rising U.S. energy dominance and geopolitical tensions continue to reshape power dynamics in global oil markets.

Article

The Big, Beautiful Bill

Potomac Perspective Podcast 

President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” takes shape, as Congress prepares to consider proposed tax breaks and spending cuts. In the latest episode of Potomac Perspective, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner and co-host Neil Shapiro discuss the latest from Capitol Hill, including a possible crack in the Senate’s bipartisan crypto coalition.

March 5, 2025 

Podcast